Colorado River Climate Inflow Model

2026-02-19 • 5 min read

Modeling how Upper Colorado climate indicators map to Lake Powell inflows.

Working notes for building a climate-to-inflow model for the Colorado River system.

Objective

Estimate expected Lake Powell inflow from climate indicators (starting with precipitation), using water-year aligned data.

Sources

  • /data/climate/upper-colorado-region-climate-combined.json
  • /data/reservoirs/lake-powell-inflow-water-year.json

Notes

  • Use water-year framing (Oct 1 to Sep 30) for climate features.
  • Keep inflow as full-year totals/series where lag effects matter.
  • Exclude incomplete years from model fitting.

Water Year Inflow vs Precipitation

Loading water year precipitation and inflow data…

Water Year Inflow vs Peak SWE (WTEQ)

Loading water year WTEQ and inflow data…