This post is a working framework for the clearest possible current picture of Lake Powell and how it is being operated.
Goal
Build a single, interpretable view of:
- Current reservoir state (storage, elevation, inflow, release)
- Near-term operational constraints (minimum power pool, dead pool context)
- Year-to-date positioning versus historical patterns
- What we still cannot explain yet without additional upstream and policy data
Current Picture (Baseline)
Starting from data already in the project:
- Daily inflow and release volume
- Daily storage and elevation
- Water-year context (current WY versus prior WYs at same WY day)
- Distance to operational thresholds (elevation and storage)
Monthly Inflow vs Release (Last 12 Months)
Daily Inflow vs Release vs Evaporation (Last 30 Days)
What We Add Next
To improve explanatory power over time, this post will incorporate:
- Upstream reservoir inflow/release chains (attribution through the system)
- Climate indicators aligned to WY timing (WTEQ, precipitation, temperature)
- Lag-aware comparisons (climate conditions versus later inflow response)
- Additional operational drivers (policy constraints, release requirements)
Method Notes
- All cross-year comparisons should be normalized in water-year terms.
- Comparisons to the current year should use year-to-date cutoffs on the same WY day.
- We should keep raw USBR/USGS values intact and annotate any derived adjustments explicitly.
Status
This post is intentionally a foundation page.
Charts and linked diagnostics will be added here as we migrate the most decision-relevant panels from other analysis pages into one operational dashboard.